1. What happened to Shana in Sapphire will probably happen against another tier 1, so I give her a 65% chance of losing.
2. If she has a 65% chance of being 6-1, she'd have a bit more chance, let's say 75%, of not having the highest SDO (because even on the 35% chance that she goes 7-0, it's still not guaranteed that she will get highest SDO).
3. What's nearly certain (99%) is that she will enter the necklace round, and she's likely (91%) to have the highest number of votes.
4. Since Shana and Azusa are the two of the seven necklace candidates most likely to win, the chances of them not winning is given by this formula: ∫[e2 → e7](log(1024)/(x * pi2))dx = 3.51174%.
5. Of the two, Azusa is more likely to win, so Shana only retains 45% of the 96.48826% chance that either Azusa or Shana wins.