Shana, Shana, and Shana

[KholdStare88]

What do you think will happen to Shana in Emerald? For each scenario, give a percentage, from 0% to 100%, of the likelihood you think it will happen.

1) Shana goes 6-1 or worse.
2) Shana ends up with lower SDO than another eligible necklace candidate.
3) Shana (is eligible for and) wins the necklace match.
4) Shana and Nakano Azusa won't win the Emerald Necklace.
5) Shana wins the Emerald Necklace.

[Jeffrey-sama]

I'm not a statistician so my guesses are most likely incorrect. *puts up flame shield*

1) 66% - Shana still hasn't went up against Mikoto or Yuki, both of whom I think she will lose to, after seeing her lose against Asuza. She will probably win against Hina.
2) 15% - Only Hina has a lower overall SAO than Shana now meaning that she still hasn't faced many of the stronger contestants. Emerald should give Shana the highest SDO.
3) 45% - Eligible: 90%. Win: 50%. For those who want Shana to win Ruby, they will obviously vote another contestant because of the "one necklace" rule. Then again, some anti-Shana voters will purposely vote for Shana just to anger Shana supporters. It's all up to what the voters think.
4) 25% - Even though Mio and Hina are also in the contention for the necklace, it seems that both Shana and Asuza have a larger fanbase.
5) 50% - All depends on the Shana voters/anti-voters. It'll most likely come down to Asuza or Shana for the necklace.

[KholdStare88]

Just a little note, but if you think Shana has a 90% chance of being eligible THEN a 50% chance of winning the match (not the necklace), then your answer should be 45% instead of 70%, unless I'm way misunderstanding what you meant.

[Jeffrey-sama]

Just a little note, but if you think Shana has a 90% chance of being eligible THEN a 50% chance of winning the match (not the necklace), then your answer should be 45% instead of 70%, unless I'm way misunderstanding what you meant.

Yes, you're right.
I made a mistake by averaging them instead of multiplying the percentages together. derp.

[superunature]

1.35%
2.80% (read it wrong)
3.60%
4.1% (Go Mio)
5.50%

[Eater-of-All]

1. 65%
2. 75%
3. 95%
4. 3.51174%
5. 45%

Reasoning:
1. What happened to Shana in Sapphire will probably happen against another tier 1, so I give her a 65% chance of losing.
2. If she has a 65% chance of being 6-1, she'd have a bit more chance, let's say 75%, of not having the highest SDO (because even on the 35% chance that she goes 7-0, it's still not guaranteed that she will get highest SDO).
3. What's nearly certain (99%) is that she will enter the necklace round, and she's likely (91%) to have the highest number of votes.
4. Since Shana and Azusa are the two of the seven necklace candidates most likely to win, the chances of them not winning is given by this formula: ∫[e² → e⁷](log(1024)/(x * pi²))dx = 3.51174%.
5. Of the two, Azusa is more likely to win, so Shana only retains 45% of the 96.48826% chance that either Azusa or Shana wins.

[lihuazou]

1. 50%
2. 90%
3.75%
4. 10%
5. 50%

[shiraoky]

1. 60%
2. 70%
3. 65%
4. 0% (just for the fun of it)
5. 50%
---

i just guessed.

[imbehindyou]

1) 50%
2) 50%
3) 50%
4) 50%
5) 50%

[HeartClover]

Who cares what I think? Certainly not me...

1) 60%
2) 80%
3) 50%
4) 20%
5) 50%

[xcrossfacekillahx]

Analysis time.

1. 50% If she faces Mikoto (1st) and or Yuki (4th) + another top 16 contestant for that matter, she can and may lose those matches. I mean face it, Shana lost to Azusa not because of necklace purposes but because Azusa's better.
2. 75% Because, she might lose to a top contender, so the chance of having equal or lower SDO is higher.
3. 65% Not that high because depending on the SDO she gets especially if she's 6-1, there's a chance of not making it to the necklace match.
4. 5% Because both of them are most likely to win the necklace anyway. Who would have thought that Kuroneko would win in the last round?
5. 50% It's either gonna be with Shana or against her.

[maglor]

1) Shana goes 6-1 or worse. : 75%
2) Shana ends up with lower SDO than another eligible necklace candidate. 67%
3) Shana (is eligible for and) wins the necklace match. : 50%
4) Shana and Nakano Azusa won't win the Emerald Necklace. : 25%
5) Shana wins the Emerald Necklace. : 34%

[yukiTomoyo]

1.50%
2.62%
3.50%
4.10%
5.50%