Eclairs wrote:From the 4 past necklace matches, Shana has been in all four of them, while azusa's in three of them. From the 3 necklace matches, shana has more votes than azusa ( i am DISREGARDING shana's lost to Azusa during sapphire because it was crystal clear Kuroneko fans vouched for Azusa ). i think we can safely deduce that most of the votes in NECKLACE matches, voters vote for their fave instead of antivoting any certain girl, if thier fave stands a great chance in winning the necklace. So from this scenario we can say Shana might hold the slight advantage over Azusa.
Given that we're ignoring the fact
- that vote totals have changed, thereby skewing the competition just eeeeever so slightly;
- that group matches up til Sapphire should be disregarded given that Kanade, Mikoto and Yuki were way too strong to see how the other girls would have fared underneath them;
- that Sapphire itself should be disregarded given the quadruple bias of VT changes, group matches can't show how strong any given girl is, as well as Shana for Ruby and HanaKana vs Kugyu;
- that it's unknown whether Shana voters voted Kuroneko/Azu-nyan in Sapph just so Shana wouldn't win while anti-Shanns might have voted Shana in hopes of spiting them;
- that aside from Sapphire, there could have been no feasible strategic voting;
- that the girls' strengths have all changed, mostly dropped, to the point where even Shana, who should be at the top T1 and one of the strongest, if not the strongest, contender against Kanade, has weakened to mid/lower-T1, struggling to beat Kuroneko;
- that your points have so many ambiguities stated as obvious facts;
- that if it's true that "voters vote for their fave instead of antivoting any certain girl" then Shana should easily win Emerald, and come a lot closer to winning Sapphire too;
- that "if thier[sic] fave stands a great chance in winning the necklace" is the precursor to voting for their favorite, then Shana may very well not be voted for in Ruby given her potentially lower SDO (which I will address later);
- and that if "most of the votes in NECKLACE matches, voters vote for their fave instead of antivoting any certain girl, if thier fave stands a great chance in winning the necklace" (which I am going to refer to as 'strategicvoting' since 'anti-voting' is not the right term for what we're talking about) then Taiga stands no chance, no matter how much you might campaign for her.
then congrats~ You have now proven that Shana has a chance at winning the Ruby Necklace. Unfortunately, so does Azusa. Within your own contradictions and assumptions, you have failed to prove that "Shana might hold the slight advantage over Azusa." Soz boz.
Eclairs wrote:So it all ends up with the SDO count. If Shana is paired with Yuki in RUBY that will be hellish, but i think she can beat Yuki ESPECIALLY in RUBY. As for Hina, thats not worth mentioning coz Shana will just pulverise her.
I think you underestimate the fanbase that backs Yuki. A lot of people like Yuki. You
like Yuki. If the circumstances were different and everyone was, say, supporting Kanade, or Mio for Ruby/another color that absolutely suited them to a T, would you vote against Yuki (or Mikoto, or Shana, or any of your other "megamisamas") just to let a girl you might mildly like/be indifferent to/not like at all (imagine if it were Sora, for you) get the necklace? Can you speak for the whole mob of voters? Shana for Ruby is a pretty big campaign, but I don't see her pulverizing Yuki on her way to it. She might win, but I don't see it cracking anywhere near 6-70%. Ruby will probably give her the chance she needs, but I don't see it being a smooth ride for her.
And Hina is
worth mentioning for the reason I stated earlier. Hinagiku is the wildcard. The 7 girls she faces all face each other (look back at the other periods if you don't believe me). Yes, Shana will go 7-0 in the wildcard loop. She will therefore, have an SDO of 63. Why? Because the maximum SDO possible for going 7-0 in the wildcard loop is 63. No more, no less.
This could be very good for Shana, if Azu-nyan goes against Kanade, rather than Yuu, and has a pretty crap schedule all round. Not so much if Azu-nyan 7-0's or even 6-1's with a ridiculously good schedule.
Eclairs wrote:For ADDED insurance of Kugyuu fans not 'losing' to KanaHana cabals = Get Taiga her necklace and both Kugyuu and KanaHana will get 2 necklaces each. Simples.
And if Azu-nyan manages to ninja Ruby, then Shana, your "megamisama," will grab the necklace you, yourself, Eclairs, called "the necklace for the losers." Shana getting Ruby alone will make Kugyu>HanaKana, since HanaKana's top girl lost to Mikoto for SDO and their second nabbed it in the period Shana supporters weren't so hardcore targetting it. And it's sure as hell not easy to bide time for the second-last necklace with such a fanbase. If Shana manages to pull of holding it off til Ruby, I would actually be inclined to say that her obtaining that necklace was a lot harder than Mikoto beating out Kanade for Aqua.
Besides which, of the remaining girls, Taiga will likely have a good chance of getting Diamond anyways, she'll be one of the, if not the
strongest contender for it.
Eclairs wrote:< not that i really care tbh, since Taiga last two remaining T1 matches are against yuu and Kanade. She stands a good chance to go 7 - 0 in the phase where she meet Yuu with Yuu's pulling power weakening rapidly. If the scheduling in Ruby is not a b**ch, lining Yuu X Taiga in Ruby instead of diamond, this will be Taiga's last best shot on a necklace ( with SDO advantage and such ).She'll still enter necklace round in diamond for all that matters, but the playing field will be much more even.
Not at all. Taiga still remains one of the strongest girls in contention for Diamond should she not win Emerald now. Even if she 6-1's to Kanade, her SDO can still be significantly higher than the other girls, and she will also be one of the bigger vote-drawers.