Eclairs wrote:1 - No more vote splitting in Ruby between Kugyuu fans. It just shows that even if Shana meets Hina in Ruby, and Shana ending the phase with around 60-69 SDO, that should be MORE than enough to win Ruby.
With 63 SDO. Like I've said before. Repeatedly.
Eclairs wrote:2 - Not allowing the HanaKana Cabals get 2 necklace and Kugyuu only 1 ( Shana ).
Stop calling them a cabal. Factions is bad enough, you don't need to completely
paint them evil, you that art a Kugyuu cabal.
Eclairs wrote:Here's a breakdown of Shana X Taiga in exhibition match :
Topaz : Shana - 1382 vs 1030 Taiga
Amethyst : Shana 1624 vs 1063 Taiga
Sapphire : Shana 2767 vs 1265 Taiga
Emerald : Shana 1390 vs 1426 Taiga
From the readings, disregarding Sapphire votes where the total vote counts were high, Shana's vote for the other 3 necklace races she fought against Taiga fluctuates between 1.3K and 1.6K . While for Taiga, her vote counts were 1K for both Topaz and Amethyst.
Stop discounting the most recent finished period. Give it less weight, sure, if you must, but don't discount it entirely. Especially since you're discounting it for "because the vote totals were high." What kind of reasoning is that?? You're saying Sapphire is inaccurate because the sample size is too large, so instead you're going to take the two periods where the sample size is smaller and suit the point you're forcing through. Not to mention the fact you're completely disregarding the fact that there were massive vote leechers with SDO to back them up in the first few periods *coughKanadecoughYukicough* Epidemiology 101. Coincidentally, this is directly relevant to my tute today. I'm actually going to have to agree with Jack_Rav and say you're forcing your stats through. Find the unbiased stats that actually support your point, it'll put you in a much better light.
In short, what you have are three things: Bias. Systematic Error. Confounding Variables.
And i would like to know what happened with :
[spoiler=giving one back to the hate posts i got in Emerald round 6, when i tried to advocate Taiga for necklace.]
RatedRKO619305 wrote:IF I can see that as I use PHStat2.
[spoiler=reply for above hate post i got]...
How on earth is someone using PHStat2 a hate post directed at you?
Eclairs wrote:1 - The ONLY chance Taiga will go 7-0 in ISML 2011
Lies~ Bar Kanade, she's likely to go 13-1 from now on, leaving her another 7-0 period.
Eclairs wrote:With said conditions, i opted to plump for the non-normal distribution of votes, anticipating vote hopping and how i was PROVEN CORRECT.
Since pretty much everyone knew Taiga was going to win Emerald with that SDO gap, I can only presume that your emphasis on being "PROVEN CORRECT" is based on your hypothesis of her being such a massive lock that everyone will vote for her and she'll win by a landslide. Sucks that's not the case. Were it not for the SDO imbalance, Mio would have won. (Which, I would point out proves me
correct when I said Taiga will win by any noticeable margin based solely on SDO, were I as condescending as y--) Also you have no proof that significant vote-hoping was the cause of Taiga's win. I should hope that Taiga need not depend solely on vote-hopping to win. I'm sorry that you do.
Eclairs wrote:Reading statistical number is easy. I am sure everyone here can easily build a statistical model to support who they are rooting, as long as the correct "Null Hypothesis" and the "alternative hypthesis" can be construed,but OBSERVING subtle changes might be hard.
Yes, observing subtle changes is hard. Good thing the changes you observed weren't subtle at all
. The changes you missed, however... well, suffice it so say at least a few of them were equally obvious.
Also congrats on realizing that people can twist things to whatever they want to show. *cough*
Eclairs wrote:As for Mio and Azusa, unless the K-On! fanbase cant agree on who to 'fly' K-On! 's banner in Ruby, split votes will mean Shana will win Ruby almost UNCONTESTED. If the K-On! camp can call a truce, and support one of the 2 girls, they might even manage to snatch Ruby from Shana and in the same time make us Shana fans/ Kugyuu supporters rage in disgust. They might even stop Shana to win Diamond altogether! ( thats a long shot, but for the Shana haters out there, every ray of hope is enough for them ... )
Then that's a good thing that the anti-Shana movement might have support from any and all the resentment you're breeding with your "I'm so much better than you" tone.
I mean, yes, very astute observation. It's even more
subtle than the changes you observed earlier. /sarcasm.
As a side note, very good of you to wait until you can wave the "but hey, look at this, I have proof" banner before making a claim that you were right before the results were set in stone and changing said argument and twisting previous stats to support it to make it sound like you're a pro statistician. Very smooth. Also very good to reply to posts from one thread in a completely different thread yonks later. So much for "not getting fired up." But I guess that's just the same as with your Writ--
Is this counted as a hatepost to you? I'm sorry if you think any rebuttal to your points is such, but hey, hateposting a hatepost cancels it out like two negatives make a postive, ne? Or perhaps it's three lefts that make the right. But seriously, I'm surprised you managed to get me to even think
about defending HanaKana, given how overrated you know
I think they are. But that's ok. I do love Kanade. And you're not quite
at Arcion level for me. Yet.