RESULTS: 2011 Emerald 8

[akumaxx]

Not the worst result for necklace.
No morale change on EXs.
And let's play:

Remilia Scarlet
Rare Undead Vampire
Squad: 4/1/1
Health: 6
Attack: 2
Wait: 8
Skill: Drain(recover health equal to damage dealt), Flying(can only be attacked by flying or archery)

[RegalStar]

I wouldn't exactly say Shana has a lot more support than Taiga these days. Mio is only a tiny bit stronger than Azusa and Shana is only a tiny bit stronger than Taiga. Azusa did a fair bit worse than Mio while Shana was only a bit behind Taiga. Azusa also had a better SDO than Shana.

What I meant is that Taiga draws a lot more vote from Shana than Mio draws from Azusa (In fact, I think Azusa is actually stronger than Mio against other people, but weaker when actually facing each other due to her drawing much more votes from Mio than Mio does from her).

[Eclairs]

I am very happy that Kugyu fans manage to move a considerable amount of votes from Shana to Taiga. If we check the previous necklace showdowns with both Shana and Taiga in, its clear that Shana supporter threw their support to help Taiga win this necklace for several reasons :
1 - No more vote splitting in Ruby between Kugyuu fans. It just shows that even if Shana meets Hina in Ruby, and Shana ending the phase with around 60-69 SDO, that should be MORE than enough to win Ruby.
2 - Not allowing the HanaKana Cabals get 2 necklace and Kugyuu only 1 ( Shana ).

Spoiler for Here's a breakdown of Shana X Taiga in exhibition match ::

Topaz : Shana - 1382 vs 1030 Taiga
Amethyst : Shana 1624 vs 1063 Taiga
Sapphire : Shana 2767 vs 1265 Taiga
Emerald : Shana 1390 vs 1426 Taiga
From the readings, disregarding Sapphire votes where the total vote counts were high, Shana's vote for the other 3 necklace races she fought against Taiga fluctuates between 1.3K and 1.6K . While for Taiga, her vote counts were 1K for both Topaz and Amethyst. A sudden drop in Shana's vote count in Emerald ( around 300 votes coincided with an increase of around 350 vote counts for Taiga ). The numbers are rather close, so i can surmise that around 300 kugyuu fans swapped our votes from Shana to Taiga just for Emerald.

From the stats, Taiga got a solid 1K plus votes in necklace showdown. If even half of the people supporting Taiga now switches their votes towards Shana in Ruby ( helping Kugyuu faction + returning favour ), Shana seems like a LOCK to the Ruby. And i would like to know what happened with :

Spoiler for giving one back to the hate posts i got in Emerald round 6, when i tried to advocate Taiga for necklace.:

Then chances are : Railgun beats Shana, knocking shana from the running for Emerald necklace ( 50% chance ). Shana voters know Ruby is hers by default. In turn they can swing their vote to Taiga through Kugyuu connection and lot other similarities between Angel Taiga sama and Flame Haze tan. Even 1 on 1, Shana > Azusa ( she lost against azusa was because Kuroneko fans antivoted her ... ) so, Shana + Taiga voting for Taiga = easy win tbh.

IF I can see that as I use PHStat2.

Spoiler for reply for above hate post i got:

We all know stats dont take into consideration abnormal situations, as they usually cater for the 95% normal distribution, be it the ( Chi-Squared method ) , T-test, Poisson test, and several other statistical method calculations. The readings taken as usually within minus 2 St.Dev until plus 2 St.Dev. I myself would have jumped in the bandwagon of Taiga wont win the Emerald if this is within the normal distribution, not at the extreme situation as in :
1 - The ONLY chance Taiga will go 7-0 in ISML 2011
2 - Mio and Azusa nullifying each others votes
3 - Shana fans holding back for ruby, since winning Emerald means NOTHING to Shana. If this was Sapphire, we can see why Shana fans want her to win, since it will be the FIRST TIME a three-peat will be done. but winning Emerald for Shana is just winning another necklace for her, while Ruby signifies her.
With said conditions, i opted to plump for the non-normal distribution of votes, anticipating vote hopping and how i was PROVEN CORRECT. Reading statistical number is easy. I am sure everyone here can easily build a statistical model to support who they are rooting, as long as the correct "Null Hypothesis" and the "alternative hypthesis" can be construed,but OBSERVING subtle changes might be hard.

As for Mio and Azusa, unless the K-On! fanbase cant agree on who to 'fly' K-On! 's banner in Ruby, split votes will mean Shana will win Ruby almost UNCONTESTED. If the K-On! camp can call a truce, and support one of the 2 girls, they might even manage to snatch Ruby from Shana and in the same time make us Shana fans/ Kugyuu supporters rage in disgust. They might even stop Shana to win Diamond altogether! ( thats a long shot, but for the Shana haters out there, every ray of hope is enough for them ... )

FUCK YES REMI WON

Yay for the Cute, moe, pettanko, loli, chibi-vampire -chwan

[Cecaniah]

FUCK YES REMI WON

-silently goes back into hiding-

[KholdStare88]

Fact: We had Shana posters created for Sapphire and Emerald, but they didn't get used...

[Eater-of-All]

Taiga wins. I approve.

Fact: We had Shana posters created for Sapphire and Emerald, but they didn't get used...

A bit of a pity; I would've loved some good old scorched earth posters.

[moemio]

Mio won the necklace showdown but it wasn't enough to win the Emerald necklace .

[Umi]

At least Shuurei didn't get the least amount of votes. Poor poor Steak.
Congrats to Taiga for winning the Emerald necklace~

[HeartClover]

Fact: We had Shana posters created for Sapphire and Emerald, but they didn't get used...

Such a shame

[loudmouth]

From the stats, Taiga got a solid 1K plus votes in necklace showdown. If even half of the people supporting Taiga now switches their votes towards Shana in Ruby ( helping Kugyuu faction + returning favour ), Shana seems like a LOCK to the Ruby.

Spoiler for reply for above hate post i got:

We all know stats dont take into consideration abnormal situations, as they usually cater for the 95% normal distribution, be it the ( Chi-Squared method ) , T-test, Poisson test, and several other statistical method calculations. The readings taken as usually within minus 2 St.Dev until plus 2 St.Dev. I myself would have jumped in the bandwagon of Taiga wont win the Emerald if this is within the normal distribution, not at the extreme situation as in :
1 - The ONLY chance Taiga will go 7-0 in ISML 2011
2 - Mio and Azusa nullifying each others votes
3 - Shana fans holding back for ruby, since winning Emerald means NOTHING to Shana. If this was Sapphire, we can see why Shana fans want her to win, since it will be the FIRST TIME a three-peat will be done. but winning Emerald for Shana is just winning another necklace for her, while Ruby signifies her.
With said conditions, i opted to plump for the non-normal distribution of votes, anticipating vote hopping and how i was PROVEN CORRECT. Reading statistical number is easy. I am sure everyone here can easily build a statistical model to support who they are rooting, as long as the correct "Null Hypothesis" and the "alternative hypthesis" can be construed,but OBSERVING subtle changes might be hard.

As for Mio and Azusa, unless the K-On! fanbase cant agree on who to 'fly' K-On! 's banner in Ruby, split votes will mean Shana will win Ruby almost UNCONTESTED. If the K-On! camp can call a truce, and support one of the 2 girls, they might even manage to snatch Ruby from Shana and in the same time make us Shana fans/ Kugyuu supporters rage in disgust. They might even stop Shana to win Diamond altogether! ( thats a long shot, but for the Shana haters out there, every ray of hope is enough for them ... )

If Shana faces Hina, then she has Ruby. No further questions. If Mio face Hina and wins then Shana will have to fight for it in the necklace match. Unfortunately Azusa's chances are extremely slim for Ruby but she might win Diamond. I wonder what would happen if her SDO was so low that she didn't make it into the necklace match. No same faction vote splits at all, Shana vs Mio for the Ruby Necklace. That would be intense.

There's a strong chance that Taiga will go 13-1 for the rest of the season. Kanade and Eucliwood are her only strong opponents between now and the end and I think she can beat Eu (Hina did) so Taiga will probably go 7-0 in Diamond

Also, minus the Necklace match, Taiga and Shana had exactly the same VD of 11050 for Emerald. Shana had more VF but Taiga had fewer VA and it evened out. Holy freaking coincidence

[Hetaliafan09]

Sigh.

No one I voted for won.

Except for Remilia, but I don't really care about her.

[Deathscyther]

Congratz to Taiga-chan! Happy that Ika-musume won as well. She should have been contending in the regular season. >.>;

I had 5 wishes this year:
1. Shana winning the tiara -> not very likely this year. I don't think season 3 will be able to boost her enough to beat Kanade
2. Shana winning a necklace, preferably ruby -> pretty likely
3. Taiga winning a necklace -> done
4. Shana, Taiga and Mikoto ending within top 10 -> pretty likely
5. Victorica ending within top 16 -> is still possible

All in all, I'm pretty happy with the results this year up to now. The only real disappointment I had was Shana losing to Azusa....I expected Shana to win that one to be honest.

[Momokutenshi]

Accurate Answers to Results Trivia:
1. 8
2. 3
3. 17
NB. Earlier result someone posted is incorrect, #1 is 8, not 9. Also #3 is an integer, not a percentage

Spoiler for breakdown of answers:

1) How many characters received less than 10% of the votes in their group? 8.
Arena 2: Luna (7.05%), Steak (3.56%), Akamaru (8.32%)
Arena 3: Arf (8.02%), Margery Daw (5.89%)
Arena 4: Yagami Kazuma (8.21%)
Arena 5: Kou Shuurei (4.19%), Yagami Hikari (9.73%)

2) How many characters in Arena 5 received more than 20% of the votes? 3.
Kinomoto Sakura (30.39%), Kiriya Nozomi (20.03%), Remilia Scarlet (20.75%)

3) Let y% = max{vote % in Arena 1} and let S = {x > y | x is a integer}. What is infimum{S}? 17.
y% = 16.64% (Akiyama Mio); therefore y = 16.64.
S = {x > y | x is an integer} where y = 16.64; therefore S = {17, 18, 19...}
Infimum{S} is the greatest element in set S that is less than, or equal to, every element; therefore Infimum{17, 18, 19...} = 17.

Essentially, this was a long and convoluted way for math-major Kholdy-sama to ask "what is the highest vote percentage in Arena 1 rounded up to the nearest integer?"

Bonus Question #3 was worth a dango~!

Cookies:
maglor 1
Momokutenshi 1
BrawlRlz28 1
Chikara Icy 1
HeartClover 1

Dango
Momokutenshi 1

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Spoiler for how the f did I get #3 right? ie. my incredibly accurate statistical thought process:

Sapphire 8 percentages:
Gokō Ruri (Kuroneko) 19.56%
Nakano Azusa 19.05%
Shana 19.99%
Katsura Hinagiku 13.10%
Suzumiya Haruhi 10.47%
Victorique de Blois 9.65%
Aisaka Taiga 9.14%

(A) Average of highest % = 19.53%
(B) Average of lowest % = 9.75%
(C) Diff between median % and (B) = 3.35%

Therefore: (A) - (C) = 16.18%
Therefore = 17.

Fuzzy Reasoning made this seem like very smart math at approximately 5.30am:

Spoiler:

Both periods have 3 top, 3 bottom and a random hovering in between once SDO is taken into account. And the frontrunners (Taiga, one of the K-ON! girls, likely Mio, and Shana) are not going to get as high as 19. Mostly because in Sapphire, the frontrunners had the highest SDOs (except Shana who was going for her third straight necklace) and because they each represented a somewhat strong faction, as well as being the three strongest girls in the group. In Emerald, many Shananites are holding out for Ruby, Mio has vote-split with Azu-nyan and Taiga doesn't exactly have the overly immense fanvotebase the other girls have. Also because she's not as recent and has no upcoming. And so, it eventuated that therefore it was <19%. However, if they get down to 15-16%, then that's 50-55% between the other 4 girls, meaning they all got 14-15% themselves (yes, that was what I thought. That 4*15=50.) Totes not poss. 17 fits~ And I like that number~

Conclusion: My awesome sleep-deprived logic may have failed me in High School Stats, but it worked here~

ie. I was ridiculously lucky and was in too much of a rush this morning/afternoon to come back and change it

Fact: We had Shana posters created for Sapphire and Emerald, but they didn't get used...

Fact: Kholdy-sama spent a long time rendering Shana's hair for the Emerald poster. Which didn't get used.

Spoiler for @Eclairs:

1 - No more vote splitting in Ruby between Kugyuu fans. It just shows that even if Shana meets Hina in Ruby, and Shana ending the phase with around 60-69 SDO, that should be MORE than enough to win Ruby.

With 63 SDO. Like I've said before. Repeatedly.

2 - Not allowing the HanaKana Cabals get 2 necklace and Kugyuu only 1 ( Shana ).

Stop calling them a cabal. Factions is bad enough, you don't need to completely paint them evil, you that art a Kugyuu cabal.

Here's a breakdown of Shana X Taiga in exhibition match :
Topaz : Shana - 1382 vs 1030 Taiga
Amethyst : Shana 1624 vs 1063 Taiga
Sapphire : Shana 2767 vs 1265 Taiga
Emerald : Shana 1390 vs 1426 Taiga
From the readings, disregarding Sapphire votes where the total vote counts were high, Shana's vote for the other 3 necklace races she fought against Taiga fluctuates between 1.3K and 1.6K . While for Taiga, her vote counts were 1K for both Topaz and Amethyst.

Stop discounting the most recent finished period. Give it less weight, sure, if you must, but don't discount it entirely. Especially since you're discounting it for "because the vote totals were high." What kind of reasoning is that?? You're saying Sapphire is inaccurate because the sample size is too large, so instead you're going to take the two periods where the sample size is smaller and suit the point you're forcing through. Not to mention the fact you're completely disregarding the fact that there were massive vote leechers with SDO to back them up in the first few periods *coughKanadecoughYukicough* Epidemiology 101. Coincidentally, this is directly relevant to my tute today. I'm actually going to have to agree with Jack_Rav and say you're forcing your stats through. Find the unbiased stats that actually support your point, it'll put you in a much better light.
In short, what you have are three things: Bias. Systematic Error. Confounding Variables.

And i would like to know what happened with :
[spoiler=giving one back to the hate posts i got in Emerald round 6, when i tried to advocate Taiga for necklace.]

IF I can see that as I use PHStat2.

[spoiler=reply for above hate post i got]...

How on earth is someone using PHStat2 a hate post directed at you?

1 - The ONLY chance Taiga will go 7-0 in ISML 2011

Lies~ Bar Kanade, she's likely to go 13-1 from now on, leaving her another 7-0 period.

With said conditions, i opted to plump for the non-normal distribution of votes, anticipating vote hopping and how i was PROVEN CORRECT.

Since pretty much everyone knew Taiga was going to win Emerald with that SDO gap, I can only presume that your emphasis on being "PROVEN CORRECT" is based on your hypothesis of her being such a massive lock that everyone will vote for her and she'll win by a landslide. Sucks that's not the case. Were it not for the SDO imbalance, Mio would have won. (Which, I would point out proves me correct when I said Taiga will win by any noticeable margin based solely on SDO, were I as condescending as y--) Also you have no proof that significant vote-hoping was the cause of Taiga's win. I should hope that Taiga need not depend solely on vote-hopping to win. I'm sorry that you do.

Reading statistical number is easy. I am sure everyone here can easily build a statistical model to support who they are rooting, as long as the correct "Null Hypothesis" and the "alternative hypthesis" can be construed,but OBSERVING subtle changes might be hard.

Yes, observing subtle changes is hard. Good thing the changes you observed weren't subtle at all. The changes you missed, however... well, suffice it so say at least a few of them were equally obvious.
Also congrats on realizing that people can twist things to whatever they want to show. *cough*

As for Mio and Azusa, unless the K-On! fanbase cant agree on who to 'fly' K-On! 's banner in Ruby, split votes will mean Shana will win Ruby almost UNCONTESTED. If the K-On! camp can call a truce, and support one of the 2 girls, they might even manage to snatch Ruby from Shana and in the same time make us Shana fans/ Kugyuu supporters rage in disgust. They might even stop Shana to win Diamond altogether! ( thats a long shot, but for the Shana haters out there, every ray of hope is enough for them ... )

Then that's a good thing that the anti-Shana movement might have support from any and all the resentment you're breeding with your "I'm so much better than you" tone. I mean, yes, very astute observation. It's even more subtle than the changes you observed earlier. /sarcasm.

As a side note, very good of you to wait until you can wave the "but hey, look at this, I have proof" banner before making a claim that you were right before the results were set in stone and changing said argument and twisting previous stats to support it to make it sound like you're a pro statistician. Very smooth. Also very good to reply to posts from one thread in a completely different thread yonks later. So much for "not getting fired up." But I guess that's just the same as with your Writ--
*ahem*

Is this counted as a hatepost to you? I'm sorry if you think any rebuttal to your points is such, but hey, hateposting a hatepost cancels it out like two negatives make a postive, ne? Or perhaps it's three lefts that make the right. But seriously, I'm surprised you managed to get me to even think about defending HanaKana, given how overrated you know I think they are. But that's ok. I do love Kanade. And you're not quite at Arcion level for me. Yet.

Spoiler for Something random @Everyone else:

[Eclairs]

Nice poster for the Necklace, KS. Also, awesome Remilia Scarlet poster !

[ilkaid]

Another set of really good posters, to go with the nice results.

[amdrag]

As promised:

I see your Cornette Face and raise you... um, this thing.

[Elvinsky]

^
Dude, nightmare fuel much? (Maybe I should've gone with Joey Wheeler's "Nyeah" face...)

Anyway, I hope I don't have to wear the Cornette Face anymore...or get to the point of saying "f- this company." (Though I'm already deep into playing as a heel to Kugyuu fans... )

[Bastion]

Just like to point out that the HnG movie comes out at the halfway point of the Ruby necklace (8/27), any matches after that will have to contend with a boosted (likely significantly so) Hinagiku and Nagi. There may be more losses at Hina-tan's hands than expected, and Shana may not have the lock on Ruby because of it.

[Jeffrey-sama]

Late to the results but I'm surprised that Mio got the most votes.
Too bad her SDO was not enough to defeat Taiga.

For the statisticians out there, can any of you tell me if Mio still has a chance for a necklace in Ruby or Diamond?

[RegalStar]

Late to the results but I'm surprised that Mio got the most votes.
Too bad her SDO was not enough to defeat Taiga.

For the statisticians out there, can any of you tell me if Mio still has a chance for a necklace in Ruby or Diamond?

Of the two remaining necklace, Shana has a lock on one (unless the movie is the best work in the history of humanity, Hina will not garner enough boost to take out Shana), and the other one is mostly between Mio and Haruhi. SDO can still vary wildly, but I think Mio has the upper hand in most scenarios.